Determine the Ship Date of Your Pebble Kickstarter Order [Outdated]

UDPATE - This post is quite outdated due to some updates from the folks at Pebble. My attempt to re-estimate was lost in the Blogger auto-save world and I don't have time to redo it.

If you haven't heard, they announced at CES yesterday that Pebbles will start shipping on January 23, 2012. This is very welcome news for my fellow backers and I who have been following their story and updates closely since early April 2012.

Image from Pebble

Thanks to Kicktraq we can use the funding progress graph to determine an approximate ship date for your Pebble smart watch.

Image from Kicktraq

First you'll need to find the date that you backed the project, personally I did on 4/14/12. As far as I can tell, the only way to get this information is from the confirmation email they sent you. If you log into Amazon Payments, you get the 5/18/12 date since that is when the project finished the Kickstarter campaign and credit cards got charged - this isn't the date you backed the project.

[UPDATE] - Thank you to Brian Phillips for pointing out this tip on how to determine your backer date if you cannot find your email from Amazon Payments: "...sign into Kickstarter then go to My Backer History (drop down the menu under Me in the upper right corner), it will tell you what day you backed the project."

Now you'll need to figure out how much money was raised at the time you funded the project. There were 85,000 watches ordered with $10,266,844 raised. Naturally there are various factors we cannot account for - some people only backed a few dollars rather than buying watches, and some watches cost more than others, so this is an approximation.

It is crude math, but let's say the average watch cost $120.79 ($10,266,844/85,000) - a reasonable assumption if you ask me. They said they will be making 15,000 watches per week, and shipping starts on 1/23/13. It is safe to assume at least 30,000 watches will have been made at that point since they entered mass production around 1/9/12 or before - meaning at least 2 full weeks of full production before they start shipping.

This means that 35% of watches will be made when orders start to ship. So looking at the math, we see that if you ordered by 4/16/12, you are likely to be in the first batch of shipments. However, looking at this chart of backers by day, you see that backing as late as the 18th might still mean you're in the first shipment since that was the day they hit ~30,000 backers.

Image from Kicktraq

If you backed after the 16th (or 18th, depending how optimistic you are), you can assume that 15,000 new watches being made every week, resulting in these approximate shipping dates:

I used data from Kicktraq, and as you can see not all $10.2M or 85,000 are accounted for exactly, so there is an error margin here. However, this should give you a pretty good idea of when your order will ship. I will say that these dates seem a bit optimistic compared to the "6 to 8 weeks" Pebble stated would be required to fulfill all Kickstarter orders. I have absolutely no affiliation with Pebble, nor do I have any inside information. This is just an attempt to use publicly available information and numbers (huge thanks to Kicktraq) to put this together.

They will be shipping via USPS and will be contacting you approximately a week before your order ships.

I hope this help since I'm sure all of you fellow backers are as excited as I am about this!